by rublev » Tue Nov 15, 2016 2:36 pm
plenty lead with the bond issue - so did WSJ (not really part of the left wing info bubble). worst week in more than 7 years for US treasuries is significant. inflation is obviously a worry. if you think about what trump actually said on the campaign - slashing taxes, what seems to be extraordinary high levels of spending etc, combined with protectionist trade and 'send them home' immigration - kinda sounds right for high inflation. we'll likely see instability until it's clear whether any of that becomes reality (via congress). not surprised it's being called out.
re the infrastructure spending - we don't really know what it will entail. seems to be a bipartisan issue with lots of democrats already saying they'd work with trump on the issue. but i'm not surprised trump likes the idea (it's almost another way for him to stick his name on things). if you look at the contract he released it says "Leverages public-private partnerships, and private investments through tax incentives, to spur $1 trillion in infrastructure investment over ten years. It is revenue neutral.". peter navarro is the economist shaping much of trump's economic thinking. if you read what he's much of it reads like a certain type of privatisation playbook. problem with this is that infrastructure built will in many cases be profit motivated - fine for a big projects in NYC or LA etc, but what about the smaller cities where the work really needs to be done (and there is less business interest)? you give investors a bigger cut of the profits. or people take risks, cut corners to reduce costs (, ). the irony is that trump got rich by licensing his name to projects - he'd be doing the same with the government. it's about big money and decisions happening elsewhere - not local communities.
also, the idea that infrastructure is apolitical / 'good' doesn't wash. we've seen what trump thinks about climate change so could well expect to see more keystone pipelines, refineries etc, while curbing investment in renewables.