by UnwashedMolasses » Wed Nov 12, 2014 1:22 pm
I've been learning massive amounts this semester and one of the things that's most fascinating is the upcoming agricultural crisis. Quick summary:
Industrialized agriculture (global scale, high turnover, wide distribution) is only possible due to the advent of fertilizer. Agricultural fertilizers take the form of N-P-K, meaning that they're comprised of Nitrogen, Phosphorous, and Potassium, in the form of ammonium nitrate, triple superphosphate, and potash. These are the three most defficient nutrients in any soil and the ones that need to be manually replaced to grow crops in greater volumes and faster rotations than the soil can naturally sustain.
Fertilizers have to be created. Potassium isn't much of a concern as it's widely available. The bigger issues come from nitrogen and phosphorous, which are hugely defficient in agricultural soils as plants uptake massive amounts of them. Nitrogen is one of the biggest contributors to the energy crisis, as the process currently used to fix nitrogen in an inorganic state that plants can uptake involves massive energy inputs. This is one of the biggest concerns regarding fossil fuels. However, this isn't the biggest concern for agriculture.
Potassium is only available on the scale it is needed from sedimentary rocks, specifically apatite. It has to be mined to be used. Potassium supplies are Incredibly limited. Specifically, we are projected to run out of mineable apatite stores in the next thirty years.
Sorry for the body of text, this is the main point. Barring some new technological process for creating phosphorous fertilizer, in the next thirty years we're going to run out of potassium. At that point we will see fertilizer prices skyrocket, followed by an accompanying rise in crop prices and the price of all agriculturally based goods. Industrial agriculture as we know it will likely cease to exist.
Not just trying to be depressing here, I do have an actual question for y'all, which is also why this post is in this thread. For those of you with experience with or knowledge about smaller-scale sustainable local farming, do you think the infrastructure is in place for a massive shift in focus onto more localized farming? And if not, what changes do you think need to be made?