by rublev » Wed Aug 20, 2014 8:42 am
This really upset me when i heard about it last night. Horrific. It doesn't change much in that we already knew that IS beheaded captives frequently, as well as crucifying people on highways. I'm not saying this killing is any worse than those that have already been murdered by this group in Iraq / Syria (the special taxes for minorities, forced deportations, forced religious conversions and mass execution etc), but there is an aura about foreign correspondents that for some reason makes the whole thing even more unsettling. Seeing Stephen Sotloff at the end only reinforced this.
What is scary about IS is their quite flagrant willingness to fight what seems almost everyone in the region; the military from Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, not to mention the Shia militias in these same countries, the Kurdish army, secular Syrians, and now US air power. Strategically it has behaved quite impressively - taking key towns and cities, oil fields and damns, other important infrastructure etc, all while domestically Iraq seems almost incapable of organising itself into a viable opposition. They were also helped significantly in the first few weeks of the escalation of the conflict when much of the Iraqi army fled, leaving US military equipment behind. The march on Erbil surprised me (and probably more) in that i expected them to go to the south, toward Baghdad (the historic seat of the caliphate, large Sunni populations etc). But when you see it through the lens of gaining more territory quickly, plus controlling vast natural resources (there are rich oil fields in Kurdistan - in Syria they did something similar by taking control of the main oil supply and essentially selling it back to the government), it maybe isn't surprising.
The concentration on the Kurdish area has brought with it more US involvement... not sure whether this was intended (they would know of the historic US Kurd alliance) or a miscalculation. Either way their confidence is pretty worrying. I wonder what the numbers are for those abandoning al Qaeda and other militant groups to join IS. I also wonder whether there is a potential violent split between these groups still to come.
It's clear that US air power in combination with a reinvigorated Kurdish force on the ground should be able to push IS back to the middle of the country, and hopefully decrease its numbers. But with zero similar involvement in Syria (oh the irony now) it's clear that will be a safe haven no matter what happens. Obviously the answer to the much bigger question will involve a combination of Iraqi military power to overcome significant parts of IS, and a political solution which will almost have to 'start again' in regard to the religious and tribal make up of Iraq (and probably Syria too). This will take a long time. Just now, unless the US and the West wants to completely wash its hands of the region, it must continue and in some cases step up the aerial campaign, even only for some immediate relief. Not doing anything would be much worse.
*puts university hat back in box*